Policy and macro essays on this site are written as research discipline, not prediction theater. The goal is to connect data, institutional constraints, incentives, and uncertainty without turning macro reading into trade instructions.
Start here if you want the China policy and credit-cycle thread of the archive.
Current China Macro
- 信贷负增长的罕见信号：四月金融数据与资产负债表衰退假说 — a reading of April 2026 credit data through social financing, household/enterprise loan demand, bank liquidity, and Richard Koo's balance-sheet recession framework.
- 如何做政策前瞻性判断：一个投资者的方法论读后感 — why policy foresight starts from constraints, implementation paths, and data definitions rather than rumor or point forecasts.
Frameworks To Build Next
- Balance Sheet Recession — why low rates do not automatically create private borrowing demand.
- Credit Impulse — why the acceleration of new credit can matter more than the level.
- Minsky Moment — how long stability can create fragile leverage.
- Debt Deflation — why debt repayment can become self-reinforcing when prices fall.
- Debt-Cycle Synthesis — how Koo, Minsky, Fisher, and Dalio divide the same terrain.
Source Notes
- 50 Mental Models for Long-Term Investors — free guide for the broader model lattice.
- Investing Discipline — the broader archive for risk, cycles, evidence, and investor temperament.
- Mental Models — the broader archive for judgment, character, and reusable distinctions.
Editorial Boundary
This page is educational. It discusses public data, frameworks, and policy constraints. It does not provide securities recommendations, target prices, portfolio allocation, or trading instructions.