Investing & Markets
巴菲特论股市：1999年的预言与当下的镜像
回顾巴菲特1999年在《财富》杂志的经典演讲：利率重力、两个17年周期、企业利润占GDP上限三大分析框架，对比2026年AI时代与1999年互联网泡沫的市场镜像。不荐股，只谈方法论。
The Inner Scorecard: Buffett's Most Underrated Idea
Buffett’s inner scorecard — judging yourself by internal standards — is his most transferable idea, rooted in Kant, Adam Smith, and Stoic philosophy.
Delayed Gratification: The Investor's Superpower
There is a peculiar paradox at the heart of investing. The financial markets offer, in theory, an open competition: every participant sees the same price data, reads the same earnings releases, and may act on the same information at the same moment. Yet outcomes diverge so dramatically — between the institutional fund manager and the … Read more
Howard Marks and the Discipline of Second-Order Thinking: What Most Investors Get Wrong
Second-order thinking in investing is the practice of looking beyond your own analysis of an asset’s fundamentals to consider what the market consensus already believes, and whether that consensus is wrong in a way that creates a mispricing opportunity. Source: Wikimedia Commons Second-order thinking in investing is the practice of asking not merely “what will … Read more
Benjamin Graham's Mr. Market: The Most Useful Fictional Character in Finance
Mr. Market is a fictional business partner invented by Benjamin Graham to represent the stock market’s daily pricing mechanism, characterized by manic-depressive mood swings that create irrational prices from which a disciplined investor can profit or ignore. Source: Wikimedia Commons Mr. Market is a fictional business partner invented by Benjamin Graham in 1949 to represent … Read more
Reading Buffett's 2025 Letter: What the Oracle Actually Said (and What He Didn't)
Buffett’s 2025 Letter is an annual communication from Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO where he outlined the company’s succession philosophy rooted in culture preservation and character, while highlighting long-term macroeconomic risks over short-term market predictions. Source: Wikimedia Commons Reading Buffett’s 2025 Letter: What the Oracle Actually Said (and What He Didn’t) The Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting … Read more
Reading Buffett's 2025 Letter: What the Oracle Actually Said (and What He Didn't)
Reading Buffett’s 2025 Letter: What the Oracle Actually Said (and What He Didn’t) The Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting is the one investor communications event that functions simultaneously as financial disclosure, philosophical seminar, and trust-building exercise. At 94, Warren Buffett used the 2025 meeting — his 60th — to do something subtler than announce strategy: … Read more
Munger's Lattice of Mental Models: Why Multidisciplinary Thinking Beats Single-Expert Analysis
Lattice of mental models: a cognitive framework integrating key concepts from multiple disciplines—such as physics, biology, psychology, and economics—that enables multi-perspective analysis and guards against single-framework bias. Source: Wikimedia Commons A lattice of mental models is Charlie Munger’s term for a cognitive framework built from the foundational concepts of multiple disciplines — physics, psychology, biology, … Read more