The Wyckoff Method: Reading the Market Through the Composite O… The Wyckoff Method is a technical analysis framework that uses price and volume to identify institutional accumulation and distribution phases, enabling investors to align with smart money through the four-phase market cycle. The Wyckoff Method is a framework for reading price and volume as evidence … Read more
Howard Marks and the Discipline of Second-Order Thinking: What Most Investors Get Wrong Second-order thinking in investing is the practice of asking not merely “what will happen?” but “what does everyone else expect to happen, and how does my view differ from that expectation in a way that is both correct and not yet reflected … Read more
Reading Buffett’s 2025 Letter: What the Oracle Actually Said (and What He Didn’t) The Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting is the one investor communications event that functions simultaneously as financial disclosure, philosophical seminar, and trust-building exercise. At 94, Warren Buffett used the 2025 meeting — his 60th — to do something subtler than announce strategy: … Read more
Templeton’s Maximum Pessimism: The Complete Framework for Cont… Maximum pessimism is the point at which collective fear has driven asset prices so far below intrinsic value that the only realistic direction is recovery, which John Templeton identified as the most reliable entry signal for disciplined investors. Maximum pessimism — the point at which collective fear … Read more
Munger’s Lattice of Mental Models: Why Multidisciplinary Thinking Beats Single-Expert Analysis Lattice of mental models: a cognitive framework integrating key concepts from multiple disciplines—such as physics, biology, psychology, and economics—that enables multi-perspective analysis and guards against single-framework bias. A lattice of mental models is Charlie Munger’s term for a cognitive framework built from the foundational … Read more
Benjamin Graham’s Mr. Market: The Most Useful Fictional Charac… Mr. Market is a fictional business partner invented by Benjamin Graham in 1949 to represent the daily pricing mechanism of stock markets. He is manic-depressive, shows up at your door every day with an offer to buy or sell, and is entirely harmless — provided you … Read more
Circle of competence is the mental model of clearly identifying the boundary of what you truly understand and operating exclusively within that zone to avoid errors born of false expertise. Source: Wikimedia Commons Tom Watson Sr., the founder of IBM, was asked about his formula for success. His answer: I’m no genius. I’m smart in … Read more
Munger’s Iron Rule states that the surest path to achieving your goals is to become worthy of them through ethical conduct, lifelong learning, and rewarding good behavior. Source: Wikimedia Commons In December 2023, Charlie Munger passed away at 99. Earlier that year, he spoke at the Daily Journal Corporation annual shareholders meeting — his last … Read more
Inversion is a mental model that solves problems by identifying and avoiding what causes failure instead of directly pursuing success. Source: Wikimedia Commons The mathematician Carl Jacobi had a motto: man muss immer umkehren — one must always invert. Munger adopted it as his primary thinking tool and applied it to everything from business analysis … Read more
Fate is like a violin string: the philosophy that life’s meaning arises from the tension of constraints, and that playing well—living with purpose despite suffering—is sufficient reward. 死是一件不必急于求成的事，死是一个必然会降临的节日。 Death is something that needs no rush to accomplish; death is an inevitable festival that will surely arrive. — 史铁生, 我与地坛 (Me and the Temple of Earth), … Read more